The measured graduation rate, how it changed through 2025 and 2026, and why the number matters more than any individual chart.
Graduation is when a token fills its bonding curve and moves to an open market. It is the closest thing this ecosystem has to survival, and it is rare.
Across the platform's history the rate sits at roughly 1 to 3 percent of launches. One large study of 832,941 launches measured a pooled rate of 0.198 percent over a short observation window; the lifetime rate quoted from on-chain dashboards is about 1.4 percent. In 2025 the full-year figure was 0.89 percent across 11.6 million tokens. In July 2026, after a launch mechanic that automatically buys into new tokens, the four-day average briefly reached 4.7 percent with a 6.7 percent peak day.
Of 18.67 million tokens measured to mid-2026, 68.7 percent had their last trade on the day they launched and 80.4 percent within 24 hours. Only 4.55 percent were still trading after 90 days. The median lifetime of tokens flagged as rug pulls is about 14 minutes.
This is the part that gets left out. In a study of 41,470 tokens that did graduate, 84.1 percent fell to less than a third of their price within 20 minutes of migrating, or showed manipulation patterns. Surviving the curve is not the same as being worth holding afterwards.
Two things stand out in the data. A linked Telegram raises the graduation rate roughly ninefold. A creator who buys their own token at launch, pushing the initial market cap above the default, raises it further. Both are also the setup for a dump, which is the central awkwardness of this market: the signals that predict a pump and the signals that predict a rug are largely the same signals.